Kazakhstan will account for 4.49% Of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2013

CEE thermal power generation in 2008 was an estimated 1,322twh, accounting for 62.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,396twh, implying 5.6% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 59.7% – in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kazakhstan’s thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 66.6twh, or 5.04% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 6.07% of thermal generation.

Coal is the dominant fuel source in Kazakhstan, accounting for 49.8% of primary energy demand (PED).

Coal is followed by gas at 29.6%, oil at 17.6% and hydro with a 3.0% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,553mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 11.0% growth over the period. Kazakhstan’s estimated 2008 market share of 4.53% of regional demand is set to rise to 5.35% by 2013. Kazakhstan has longer-term plans for nuclear power generation, but will not contribute to nuclear consumption during the forecast period.

Kazakhstan is just below Poland in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment ratings. There is a powerful combination of unrivalled power consumption growth outlook, region-topping energy demand growth, steady privatisation progress, and relatively low level of energy import dependence. Country risk factors offset some of the industry strengths, but the country has the longer-term potential to pull away from Poland and challenge Romania for the top rung of the regional ladder.

BMI is now forecasting Kazakh real GDP growth to average 3.9% per annum between 2009 and 2013, although we anticipate a decline of 1.9% in 2009. The population is expected to expand from 15.4mn to 15.9mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by 18% and 16%, respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 70.4twh in 2008 to 84.0twh by the end of the forecast period, while surplus generation is expected to rise from an estimated 10.2twh in 2008 to 21.0twh in 2013, assuming 5.5% annual growth in power generation. In fact, system wastage and transmission weaknesses mean that Kazakhstan has to import some power, as well as exporting electricity to Russia.

Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Kazakh electricity generation of 83.6%, which is the second-highest projected growth rate for the CEE region. This equates to 40.9% over the 2013-2018 period, up from 30.3% between 2008 and 2013. PED growth is set to increase from 30.8% between 2008 and 2013 to 37.2%, representing 79.5% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 192% in hydropower use during the period 2008-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 78% between 2008 and 2018. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found later in this report.

by Press Office, London, UK

Kazakhstan Power Report Q3 2009