And what if the mountain comes to Mahomet?

An intense construction around the mountain and on top of it already becomes visible: the upper station of passenger aerial ropeway is being destroyed.

If we believe in the professionalism of seismologists and what they say it becomes scary. Koktobe hill is covered by a system of the so called tectonic fractures going in various directions and the same is related with the seismic zone with the intensity of potential earthquake reaching 10 grades! Moreover, if this local place of attraction is "shaken", it can crawl down on the city, erasing everything on its way - such is the characteristic feature of loess and loamy soils.

It's been long time that specialists know about an extreme danger represented by Koktobe, and when the construction of TV tower was planned, they warned the party administration of the republic that it was not to be allowed! But their arguments did not seem to be taken into account and everything was done as it had been planned. Lately the hill transformed. The area became desirable for those, who wanted to enjoy fresh air residing not far from the centre of the Southern capital. The consequences of human invasion of the hill are lamentable. Emergency response specialists assert that an uncontrolled inundation of the body of the hill is taking place (rains, irrigation, and sewer water). Ravines have appeared at some sections on the slope of the hill and landslides are quite usual here. A few years ago some ten private houses were damaged and soon other ones are going to be pulled down…

Dr. Tanatkan Abakanov, PhD, head of the Seismic Stability Centre of the Ministry of Education and Science и науки, says that intensive geodynamic phenomena are taking place on the hill. For instance, in the Eastern part of the hilltop there is a reinforced concrete construction of an old facility of former "Aul" restaurant. Because of a landslide powerful reinforced concrete frames have been destroyed, the main reinforcement crushed. Even the TV tower that has a powerful foundation is already heeling over by 15-20 centimetres. Moreover, no purposeful research whatsoever is taking place.

In case of a strong earthquake on the territory of Koktobe, the seismologist believes, various seismically caused landslide phenomena can appear, because soils are in an unstable condition. It is well-known that inundated ground loosening and thinning takes place because of seismic activities. There are enough of such precedents in the world practice.

The institute of seismology has offered a whole set of measures to avoid the trouble. According to specialists, a complete revision and research of Koktobe hill with all constructions on its top, slope, and by its bottom must be carried out, geophysical methods should be applied for the research of dynamic of changes in physical and mechanical characteristics of geological area and the degree of dislocation process in both the body of the hill and the constructions erected on it. This is what seismologists can do on their side. And the city authorities must exclude the irrigation on Koktobe, create a system of organised surface and atmospheric water drainage, reinforce the road serpentines by protective constructions and, naturally, categorically forbid the construction of any facilities there.

Specialists must pay special attention to the fact that the ropeway - which used to be pride of Almaty - is in a pre-emergency situation and its further usage can entail unpredictable consequences.

In due time the ropeway, its upper and lower supports were designed and constructed with consideration of engineering, geological, and especially soil conditions of that time. However, when the design was made because of weak understanding of possible changes in the dynamic of man-caused influences, changes in the usage of area surrounding the upper support, serious errors were committed.

Starting from 1990, the hill owners changed several times. Everybody tried to pump as much money as possible from it, without investing any money into seismic protection measures. Now at a spot by the upper support of the ropeway three managing subjects are functioning: the direct owner of the ropeway and two cafes that uncontrollably discharge their sewerage flows into the ground. An intense inundation along the whole thickness of the filled up soil adjoining the ropeway takes place, which causes landslides, deformation and damage of supporting walls, as well as landslides along the whole thickness of the soil along the branches of the ropeway lower than its upper support.

Therefore today the issue of rescuing the ropeway has been posed. For this it is necessary to carry out a set of complicated engineering and technical measures. In general, there is a technical possibility of full utilisation and seismic security of the ropeway. But there is no such wish, because it's not really possible to give Koktobe away to single hands. And even if it happens, big financial resources for maintaining the ropeway are needed - several million tenge at a minimum. Nobody counted how much exactly, because the authority structures don't pay any special attention to what's going on around Koktobe.

True, lately all types of commissions often come to Koktobe, but it's unknown if the only true solution is passed. It is always like this in our parts: nobody will do anything until it's too late.