Walking on oil?

Here the main part of Kazakhstani oil is produced. There is certain part of reserves in the South (Kumkol field) and Aktobe oblast. And that's it. There are no large oil & gas provinces (professional geologists term) in Kazakhstan, according to the established point of view.

However, according to a number of well-known Kazakhstani geologists, South-East of the country has serious chances of being included into the list of regions, rich with oil & gas. This view is expressed by Dr.Vadim Koshkin, Ph.D. in geology and mineralogy, Corresponding Member of International and Republic's Academies of mineral resources, Dr.Lyudmila Yartseva, Ph.D. in geology and mineralogy, academic secretary of the Earth of NSA of RK, Ruslan Ostapenko, the leading geologist of "BNinvest", laureate of State premium of USSR. That is, this is an opinion of very respectable specialists.

Today in Kazakhstan there are 16 oil and gas bearing basins or depressions, that is geological regions, where according to their geological construction oil reserves can be found. Alakol and Pribalkhash depressions, in the East of the country, as it is seen from their names, are less known, but, according to the experts, can contain significant oil & gas bearing potential. A number of objective geological factors show that, in particular, availability of favourable conditions for localisatoin of hydrocarbons in paleo-past, availability of the same muck measure, which contain the so called catchers, capable of containing hydrocarbons. But even less certainty, than the existence of these geologic conditions is arisen by the analogies with the same China.

- Actually Zaisan, Ili, Pribalkhash, Alakol depressions, as well as productive Jungar depression on the territory of neighbouring China, are parts of unique sea basin, which existed 280 million years ago, in Permian period. It is exactly Permian measure that produce oil. The most well studied region, to our regret, in this paleo-sea appears to be Jungar depression in China, where a number of oil & gas fields are found, - Mr.Koshkin said.

Actually in this region, located in XinJiang Uigur Autonomous District (XUAD) of China, in Kazakhstani borders vicinity, a giant Karamai field is developed. According to Chinese oilmen's forecasts, by 2008 the annual output of oil production at XUAD fields will make fifty million tons. The identity of Jungar depression's subsurface geology with Alakol and Pribalkhash and a number of other factors provide significant grounds to suggest that at the nearby bordering territories of Kazakhstan serious oil & gas reserves may be discovered. In particular, at Jungar gates themselves, which according to Mr.Ostapenko, can be a sort of geological "channel" between Jungar and Alakol depressions.

Such suggestions by Kazakhstani geologists are based not only on geological identity of Kazakhstani and Chinese bordering regions, there are other factors as well. In Alakol lake at the depth of several meters the so called sopropel coals, which under certain geophysical conditions, are able to transform into oil. To the South of the lake, in Kok-Suat river basin breas are found - frozen vein manifestations of oil when it comes to the surface. Yevgeniy Shlygin, famous Soviet geologist in the 30-s of the last centuries at a session of Academy of Science of USSR spoke about the existence of oil sources in this region. That is when the oil flew to the surface itself. It all, as well as number of other observations, made by various specialists, including the still famous geologist Obruchev during his trravels in early 20th century, provides serious grounds to suppose oil & gas reserves availability at the South-East of Kazakhstan. Indirect suggestion - discovery of hydrocarbon potential in the 70-s in Zaisan depression.

It must be noted that not all geologists share this point of view. A number of scientists considering tectonic processes in this region, could not make possible for hydrocarbons to remain there. Exactly these doubts, as well as lack of funds, led to the fact that yet in Soviet times out of 16 oil & gas basins, in Kazakhstan only two - Pribalkhash and Alakol. Nevertheless, according to the experts, there is a sufficient number of evidences for organisation of exploration works in this region.

Let's imagine that big oil is actually discovered in this region. Positive results of such discovery can vary. Firstly, a big region of the country - South, South-East and East of Kazakhstan, lacking energy today, will receive a possibility to resolve its gas provision problems, and in the future with electric energy as well. It would promote the development of a new industry for this region, namely oil production, transportation and processing. And this, apart from purely economic effects, is important from the social point of view, as this part of our country has excessive workforce. Finally, discovery of big oil resources in South East Kazakhstan could have an important geopolitical effect: the idea of export pipeline construction from Kazakhstan to China would become more probable. If that oil pipeline would include into its "orbit" all the main oil producing regions in the country - West of Republic, Aktobe fields, Kumkol, and hypothetical as of yet resources at Kazakhstani-Chinese border region, this projects would gain real weight. After all, today one of the main impediments to Chinese route realisation is doubts in the possibility to ensure a stable big volume of oil pumping.