Japanese variant for Iraq?

US Senate, following the Congress House of Representatives, has approved granting special authorities to the US President, concerning possible beginning of military actions against Iraq. As the internatinoal press observes, these authorities are even bigger than those received eleven years ago by George Bush Sr. for the war against Iraq.

It seems that the new Gulf war becomes absolutely inevitable, despite the fact that its idea even among the closest US supporters doesn't find common approval, while Russia and China are unambiguously against it.

Does it seem that it doesn't matter for us? It is only at a first glance that Kazakhstan is far from these events geographically and geopolitically. Since the last year, after the US troops arrival to the Central Asian region, any important events, in the centre of which there will be Americans, are capable of influencing us, even if indirectly. What else should be expected in the case of the beginning of American-Iraqi war?

Of course, a lot will be defined by its course and results, but Baghdad will sooner be destroyed. Too unequal, absolutely incommensurable is the military and economic potential of antagonists. After that the geopolitical picture in Asia will change radically. Firstly, destruction of Baghdad and occupation of Iraq will be very badly perceived in Iran. American-Iranian contradictions are known not less, than American-Iraqi, while Iran was quoted by the Preident Bush among the "axis of evil". It may be supposed that Teheran will start to prepare forcefully to a possible in the nearest future attack against itself. And Iran already has rockets of distant enough range. Such situation will not improve settlement in Asia.

But in a bigger degree Kazakhstan will be influenced by a possible reaction on Iraq destruction on the part of China. Another US victory will strengthen their strategic positions in all Asia. Military bases in Saudi Arabia, occupying Iraq and Afganistan, Pakistan loyal to Washington, bases in Uzbekistan, Kyrgizia, South Korea and Japan, navy in Indian and Pacific Oceans make American positions in Asia so firm and intertwined in the efficient system of potential military cooperation, which significantly annuls Chinese army's chief advantage for today - its prevalence in number. Beijing's reaction was multisided, but the most important for Kazakhstan will be such possible measure of the Chinese, as a reinforcement of its troops, dislocated at the North-West of the country, that is in the direction of Central Asia, Afganistan and Kazakhstan. For China it will be an attempt to counteract to the American military presence in Central Asian region. This version of events development will harshly complicate the situation in the region, making it an arena of rivalry between big players.

But the economic consequences of Iraq destruction by Americans will be not less sensitive for Kazakhstan. In American press the information appeared that after the victory over Hussein regime in Iraq an occupation regime similar to that of post-war Japan will be established there. That is, the country will be administered, economically also, competely by the American military administration. The process of power's transfer to a "right" Iraqi civil government can take a long period - months, and even years. The main result of this administration will be total, large scale exit of Iraqi oil to the world market. There will not remain any political and dipomatic obstacles for that, given that the ten year international sanctions, limiting export of oil from Iraq, are due exactly to Hussein's rule, and after his defeat the sanctions will be abolished automatically. The economic obstacles will also be resolved: if the oil production facilities and accompanying infrastructures are damaged during the military operations, than all this will be quickly repaired by the "provisional" military administration. And as Iraq is a country with a formally socialist model with all oil production controlled by the State and not by private companies, then after the destruction of that State logically it will come under complete control of the winners. As a result USA will get what they obviously want from all this mess: a complete control over the oil production and export of Iraq, the second country in the world on oil reserves. Moreover, the oil is very high quality and cheap in its prime cost. And that is exactly what the American economy, which is currently in recession, needs.

At the world market of energy supply it will provoke a decrease and even fall of the oil prices. These are not "home-grown" forecasts, which has been confirmed by Mikhail Kassyanov, head of Russian government during the presentation of Russian budget for the next year. Then Kassyanov stated directly that in the case of a Gulf war the prices would first soar, then they would fall. It is clear, why. And forming of Russian budget took that option into consideration. But consider it or not, the long term prices decrease will be painful for all the petroleum exporting countries, including Kazakhstan. And if US military administration in Iraq will last at least as long as in Japan, we should talk exactly about the long term decrease.