Multiplying threats?

While the attention of the whole world is attracted to Iraq, the political situation in Central Asia is becoming more and more uncertain. Many national experts make this conclusion.

When the Talebani regime was overthrown in Afghanistan by Americans and their allies, the acuteness of threats to post-Soviet Central Asia diminished.

Since the Talibs disappeared there is no reason to be afraid of an attack from beyond Pyanj gorge, the Islamist groupings in Uzbelistan and Kyrgyzstan went back into clandestinity. It seems that the whole region can sigh with relief. Especially Kazakhstan that had been situated "in the rear" of the Afghan direction. But Maulen Ashimbaev, director of Kazakhstani Institute of Strategic Research considers that we don't have reasons for a long term tranquility.

Today a number of problems for the security of both Kazkahstan and the whole Central Asian region remain. In general they are well-known: it is the drug traffic, an illegal arms market, an illegal migration. But there are also two quite specific threats. The first one is related with Afghanistan. The second one - with Caspian Sea.

In Afghanistan after the overthrow of the Talibs a full settlement and pacification of the situation did not take place (as many experts predicted). The regime of the head of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai still depends on the US economic support and the US military bases. And this "close relationship" with the United States makes it stable and unstable at the same time. The stability, for sure, is based on the American financial, military and political might. And the instability is based on the possibility of a reflux of the US support. Currently, when the Americans are more and more involved with Iraq, the attention to Afghanistan is decreasing. Experts in Kazakhstan are worried that it's going to be followed with a decrease in the economic aid to the Karzai regime. And if so, then sooner or later a danger of the civil war can re-appear in the country because of some new repartition of power. And Central Asian countries will have to think again how to ward off a possible aggression from Afghanistan or how to deal with a possible inflow of the refugees and with other "attractions" of a neighbouring country at war. It should be remembered that if the economic forecasts about a fall of the world oil prices after a defeat of Iraq, then all these old new Afghani problems will have to be resolved in the conditions of decreasing financial resources. For Kazakhstan this is an ambiguous problem. On one hand, Afghanistan, as we said, is quite far from us, in any case there is no direct border with it. It means that the de-stabilisation there will not be reflected too much upon us. On the other hand, if military and political problems in Afghnistan will be added to the socioeconomic problems of Uzbekistan, the whole big region of Central Asia will "go on flames" so that that direction will become a main threat for Kazakhstan.

Another potential threat, about which political scientists often speak, is a reaction on the part of traditional big world oil exporters at the increase of its supply from the Caspian region. What the "oil sheikhs" will feel towards their new competitors from Central Asia? Nobody and nowhere likes competitors. And the traditional leaders of the world oil market have got not only loads of petrodollars, but also a strong ideological weapon of their claims of the leadership in the Islamic world. So, a certain concern about the relations with these forces in the nearest future, expressed today by our political scientists, is quite understandable.

What Kazakhstan should do now to avoid the appearance of all these problems "en masse"? Apparently, apart from the development of our own economy and security systems we need a development of political and military cooperation at the level of various unions. In Central Asia it is the Shanghai Cooperation Treaty, including the Afghan direction. Although now they try to stuff it with some economic content, the SCT was established exactly as a military political union, and it should be repreated again and again. United efforts of Russia, China, Kazakhstan and three Central Asian States can become a serious stabilising factor in the region, even if distemper re-emerges in Kazakhstan.

More complicated is the situation around the potential oil competitors. But here again the way of political unions is the only unbeatable way. True, the composition of these unions is quite complicated, they are in various directions and in due time included different partners, even antagonists: Russia, USА, Iran, China.