Strange arithmetics

The danger is rather where it's least of all expected - in the suddenly strenghtning KZT rate and an accumulation of a huge amount on the accounts of the National Foundation.

Where's the money, honey?

An inexpedient and inefficient usage of budget funds is a real scourge for our economy. Year after year the controlling authorities, drawing results of its work, state with sadness: there were financial violations as usual. So it was five years ago, so it happened in 2002. Specialists from the Calculation committee for the execution of the national budget of RK, who had carried out 31 reviews, calculated that a damage for the amount of 1.6 billion KZT was done to the State treasury. Moreover, not all the spent money could be returned to the treasury - in total 1.1 billion KZT. Besides, underaccrued taxes, untimely paid customs payments for the amount of 658.4 million KZT were discovered. And, only 387.5 million could be recovered.

The spectre of infringements is very diverse. It seems that in the State authorities and organisations, maintained at the expense of the national budget, the inventiveness is not lacking. You won't invent it all in one day, to put it shortly. For instance, in one of the oblast Universities they got so much into foreign relations that they forgot to get a permit from the ministry of education. As a result they spent 140 thousand tenge only on telephone negotiations and faxes around CIS. Besides, the scientists were so concerned about the situation with orphan students, or, more precisely, with their stomachs, that they planned 5 million KZT more than it was needed for a half-year. At the same time they were not going to allocate more than 106 KZT per orphan.

Or, for example, the ministry of health, ceaselessly fighting the TBC, bought so many medicines that, not having enough patients, who could use those pills, sent them to the hospitals of the ministry of defence and KNB. Perhaps, as a humanitarian aid. It also did not fail to provide the oblast centres - above the number of applications. "The goodwill gesture" costed almost 220 million KZT (!). Besides, concluding very profitable deals with some companies (a huge volume of supplies, a guaranteed payment), the agency managed to transfer tens of millions KZT even for the rate difference so that the supplier would not lose. And a lot of other violations were committed in that area. But who cares.

However, doctors are neither accountants, nor economists. Some lower the corporate tax, the value added tax and other obligatory payments. Only in West Kazakhstan oblast on 18 of 19 reviewed enterprises and organisations such violations were discovered. As a result, the local and national budget lacked 165 million KZT. Customs people were not born yesterday either. They "forgot" to transfer protective duties in the amount of 22.8 million KZT into the national budget income…

Anyway, it's impossible to describe all violations discovered. But, most likely, violations ensue not out of naivete or sincere mistakes. It is just our mentality. If we build a road, then it should be at least 3 centimeters narrower to save asphalt and, maybe, something else. If we conclude an agreement on State purchases, why not take care about the insisting brother of beloved wife at the same time? If there are vacancies and salaries, why not employ a "dead soul"? The list could be continued…

Another sort of reserve stock

What's surprising, today there are problems in the economy not because of a scarcity of money, but because they are not used properly. The president was saying for a long time that separate programmes into the national budget without a valuable basis. Now these statements have been practically confirmed by the calculations of the Calculation committee. The national budget costs have been executed for almost only 92 per cent! In general an insufficient usage of funds or an untimely financing took place on 74 budget programmes for the amount of 49 billion KZT. It looks like there is nothing out of place: the money was saved. But the economists aren't happy. This unplanned reserve influenced negatively the results of country development. The logics is simple: timely and complete usage of budget funds helps to increase the GDP. There are fears that the same will happen this year. That's why Zhaksybek Kulekeyev, chairman of the Calculation committee, believes: the government must improve the cost management mechanism.

Meanwhile, if we talk about today, it all isn't so bad. The results of the country socio-economic development in January-February provide bases for optimism. If we judge from those, in the nearest future the high tempo of economic growth will be maintained. According to forecasts, in the first quarter a GNP growth not less than 9 per cent is expected. But, as a professional economist Zhaksybek Kulikeyev is not particularly inclined to be deluded by preliminary forecasts.

According to him, the strengthening of KZT exchange rate against Euro and USD, is undesirable. In this situation a number of certain commodities becomes more attractive, than a consumptioin of national ones. And here a dangerous "chain reaction" can take place: national producers will be forced first to lower prices and then the production output as well. Statistics already confirm this tendency: since last August the price indices of producers, occupied with agricultural products processing, started to fall because of a growing competition. Something of the same kind happens in the processing industry. There also prices and production output started to fall. That is, exactly those economic sections, which were already hard to develop, have come under the threat of bankrupcy. And, maybe, the strengthening of exchange rate is not worth it?

Another problem appears lately. Last year national savings became bigger than the investments into the economy for the first time. We mean the National Foundation, where 2 billion USD have been accumulated. If this situation is maintained, Zhaksybek Kulekeyev warns, it can lead to a drop of foreign investments and provoke an outflow of capital from the country.