Friends and foes of the Four

The four countries have declared about their readiness for real integration and this document has defined the course by which the four should follow to attain its goal.

This event drew attention of the whole world - literally. And the world was divided into two parts. One - an obvious minority, was enthusiastic about the solemn act of signing the agreement that had to become a beginning for a real integration of four sovereign republics. The second one - an obvious majority, felt threat in the event.

Among them - the European Union, the USA and even the close surrounding in the CIS.

If we characterise the reached agreements briefly, the four countries are going to start forming a free trade area on the first stage. It means that they will open their borders for a free traffic of commodities and services, establishing common rules in tariff and non-tariff regulation. Here a number of issues must be resolved, which will allow to simplify the order of customs registration and control on the interior borders (at the concluding stage of the CES formation these procedures will be cancelled), to unify trading regimes with regard to the third countries, to agree on conditions for establishing a favourable climate for attracting investments into priority areas and productions etc.

With the development of the free trade area a common labour market will be created with a free movement of citizens of member states and a free movement of capital will become possible when the macroeconomic policies will agreed on.

Such is the general outline of the future common economic space. In the future, if the first stage of integration is successful, it will be possible to talk about a customs, economic and currency union.

These plans allowed the world to see that the four is arming itself with the European experience, which exactly in this way, having originally defined the consequence of its measures, started to unite. The question now is only about whether the leaders of Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are coherent enough, whether their political will is firm.

Presidents of various CIS countries, in front of whom the historical act took place, were not enthusiastic about the event at all. At least, nobody congratulated the presidents or asked to join the new union. The president of Kyrgyzstan even before the beginning of summit in Yalta had made a PC statement that official Bishkek had approved the idea of establishment of the common economic space. That's it. However, already having returned back home, the Moldavian president Vladimir Voronin made a quite harsh statement that the most influential countries of CIS had consciously " played on lowering the CIS shares". In his view, the destiny of CIS had been decided, ideas about a possible integration had been left behind forever, and therefore Moldova had to become even more decisive in joining the European Union. Thus, the politicians oppose the CES to the EU in their minds.

The European Union itself was very cautious in evaluating the CES. It is well-known that it develops a concept of "Extended Europe", in which Ukraine must play a key role. It is still unknown what kind of concept it is, when it's going to be transformed in reality, but it's been long time that Ukraine expects a carrot from the EU. And now, at last, there is a possibility to try another role - to take part in integration on equal rights. Let it even be with CIS countries.

The EU reacted immediately. An EU commissary, having arrived to Kiev, declared that the membership of Ukraine in the CES could negatively influence its relations with the EU. In the first turn, it has to do with a prospect of Ukraine joining the WTO: if the CES creates the free trade area successfully and move towards an establishment of the customs union, then certain "difficulties" expect Ukraine up to a payment of compensation to the WTO members. However, the European representative apparently did not take into consideration that Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia will join the WTO much earlier, already in 2004-2005, than the free trade area is established. The EU made it clear that it welcomed the creation of a simple free trade area, but not more. Because the EU already has its plans for co-operation with each of "the four" in a bilateral format.

Meanwhile, many experts, dealing with the integration problems, are on the contrary sure that the EU will be more willing to co-operate "with a single fist, rather than with each of the fingers". When the four states (and, possibly, by that moment other countries will express their desire to integrate - among the first candidates there can be Kyrgyzstan and Armenia) establish a valid and full-fledged, then the EU will have nothing to do, but to recognise the fact and to seek understanding with the Eurasian Union. According to one of scenarios, the most optimistic one, with time the CES countries will create a joint free trade area together with the EU.

But let us return to Kiev. Leonid Kuchma didn't listen to the teachings of the EU and stated that he did not see any contradictions between the membership in the EU and joining the CES. The leader of Ukraine, who for a long time listened to the voice of opposition that was wholly for a turn of the country towards the West at last could formulate the national interests of Ukraine. They are not ready to perceive Ukraine as a full fledged partner and European markets will remain closed for Ukrainian commodities for a long time. And therefore it doesn't pay to orient itself towards Europe exclusively. On the contrary, the agreement on the CES will open agricultural markets for Ukraine, provide an access to Eurasian transport systems and make countries rich with energy closer partners. "It will allow us to enter a new level of economic development, more corresponding to the EU standards", - Kuchma concluded.

Meanwhile, Washington is not happy about Russia's "uniting not Russian, but the nearby countries". They don't want to see any drive towards a unification on the territory of Eurasia. USA was happy about the balance of political powers that had appeared after the collapse of the USSR: the world suddenly became unipolar and America - a dominating power. Now when three other countries return to the orbit of Russia, the control of Moscow over European territories on the borders with the EU and the NATO can come back. It especially worries the political elite. Well, actually it's too early for America to worry about it yet.

Today they try to detect imperial ambitions in Russia. Warnings can be heard that Russia is taking countries still unrecovered after the collapse of the USSR under its wing. But the actual initiator here is Kazakhstan. (Putin said that publicly. But everybody heard whatever they wanted to). Recently Nursultan Nazarbayev declared that there was no real integration in the CIS and it was related with a choice of various models in economic development. It cannot allow real integration take place.

"The four" seeks to rectify the error. Just don't impede it!