All quiet on the Eastern front?

However the stability problem in this strategically important region is not off the agenda. The current situation in Central Asia is quite optimistic.

Since the coalition forces invaded Afghanistan, broke the main forces of Talibs and established a temporary, and then permanent government there, Central Asia sighed with relief. What the countries bordering with Afghanistan were afraid of the most, did not happen: refugees, despite expectations, remained in Pakistani temporary camps, the extremism was not exported.

But, two years after, politicians come to a conclusion that the calm in Central Asia is but a temporary phenomenon. There are too many problems interior as well as exterior ones.

The impression that the Afghanistan problem is over is illusory. On the contrary, as Abdullah Aymak, employee of Afghan embassy in Kazakhstan, recently stated at an international security conference in Almaty, since the beginning of the was on Iraq the international community forgot about Afghanistan that again encountered old problems. According to Mr. Aymak terrorists are openly trained in border camps between Afghanistan and Pakistan, in multiple madrassas not basics of Islam are taught, but skills of handling arms, killing, destroying schools and administrative structures of the peaceful states. The drug business problem has not been resolved either: the production of high quality opium not only did not decline, but grew a few times: if Talibs forbade cultivating poppies, the coalition forces don't manage to do it - they must support peace. Therefore it is now that Afghanistan needs international support. If there is no help, another military crisis in Afghanistan is inevitable, which will necessarily break the balance in Central Asia.

The second problem is related with the absence of security system on Caspian Sea. According to official data, the proven oil reserves on Caspian make around 4 billion tons. Forecasts entail even more optimism: according to various estimations, there are from 15 to 30 billion tons. Therefore it is very important to define the status of Caspian Sea. This issue remains on the agenda for seven years already, but only bilateral initiatives managed to advance it. Moreover, Turkmenia and Iran prefer to stay aside, dictating their own rules of game. This still unresolved problem makes politicians think about security on sea.

Last summer at the first transasian parliamentary forum the president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed to sign a "Pact on stability on the Caspian", the key moment of which had to be an abstention from the usage of military force on the Caspian. According to well-known political scientists, this idea is quite promising, considering the strategic significance of the Caspian for the world energy. Therefore any actions must be taken with special political precautions. Diplomacy, reciprocal respect and certainly banning militarization must be main principles on the Caspian.

The third problem of Central Asia is internal, "domestic". Moreover, it's not single - it's a real knot of problems. Firstly, there is information that due to disease of Islam Karimov struggles between different clans became more acute. An unfavourable scenario is quite likely to develop here. Social problems (and to a lesser extent, than in Uzbekistan, ethnic ones), can again appear in Kyrgyzstan, where there have already been big riots on this terrain. If the situation in those two countries becomes unstable, as experts warn, the threat from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Afghan Islamists will tend to grow significantly.

Secondly, the politics of another country - Turkmenistan - carries a serious threat. An authoritarian style of government and unpunished violation of human rights drive the country into Middle Ages and make it a candidate number one for a "humanitarian intervention" from the West. If it happens even in a remote prospect, Central Asia will have to bear all consequences.

Thirdly, a conflict in the region can provoke scarcity of water and land resources, no matter how strange it may seem. For instance, Kyrgyzstan already made attempts to establish payment for water, which immediately concerned the Kazakhstani government. As for the people - it's too straightforward. It won't wait until the problem is resolved in political circles, it will take sticks and wage a war.

Another apple of discord during many years is border problems, in particular, between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In the first case Uzbekistan placed mines right on the border, supposedly, to impede "troops" from Kyrgyzstan in the case of an invasion (there were victims among local shepherds). In the second case the issue is almost resolved on the diplomatic level, but Uzbek frontier guards still have problems with Kazakhstani people. That's why they shoot as soon as a target appears. They never care, who has made two steps on Uzbek ground - either a spy, inexistent in those areas, or a shepherd looking for a lost cow. A rare month passes without incidents on Kazakh-Uzbek border.

Returning to the foreign locks on Central Asian borders, it should be noted that lately a possibility of a breakthrough on the part of extremist gangs from Afghanistan and Pakistan has grown significantly. The secret services of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, seem to have already received certain signals although they deem them premature. Otherwise, how can be explained a close inspection of secret paths on the borders between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. True, the source of this information stresses that such inspections are carried out for the third year already - to discover armed extremists from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan or others. In the end of the 90-s the IMU twice invaded the territory of Kyrgyzstan to follow on the Ferghana valley, where Islamists would like to create an Islamic Caliphate. Since 2000, according to the source, no suspicious persons were discovered in the mountains, however, it is well-known that God helps those, who help themselves. And despite various testimonies that the IMU does not exist anymore, there must still be enough people who would sacrifice their lives for the Islamic Caliphate.

As we see, there are two many factors objectively testifying that the stability in Central Asia is still fragile like a figuline.