Turkish gambit

Initiating a military operation against Kurdish Labor Party representatives (KLP) whose camps are based on the territory of neighboring Iraq Ankara has made its choice where there is no place for Washington's comments and Western Europe's warnings.

Already now there are Turkish troops of 60 thousand of military men on the border with Iraq.

In Northern Iraq, as mass media reports, there are based about 4 thousand of Kurdish soldiers. Turkey Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stated on Friday that his country will not be stopped by any possible consequences of Iraq invasion.

The general staff of Turkish army already develops a plan for military operation in Northern Iraq. The operation aim is KLP soldiers' base which is recognized in the US and the EU as terrorist organization.

Together with KLP does not want to take observing position. Already on October, 21st, Kurdish extremists attacked Turkish military men on the border with Iraq territory.

According to "Associated Press", about 36 soldiers died in the operations. The last attack is the first from KLP attack series lead to loses of Turkish soldiers right after the Turkish parliament approved country's call on Turkish army invasion Iraq to execute trans-border military operation against Kurdish separatists.

Anxiety on possible invasion of Turkish army in Iraq was expressed by the US and European countries.

As a response, Turkish authorities underlined that they have intentions to defend their national interests even taking into consideration possible worsening of relations with European countries and Washington.

To remind, the situation in the region would remain further forecasted stably although the resolution on genocide of Armenian people in 1915 in Osman Empire adopted by the US Congress Chamber of Representatives served as international tension catalyst.

This recommendation resolution adopted by the beginning of October caused an effect of torn bomb. Voted by 21 "against" and 27 "for" and adopted the resolution on genocide of Armenian people the Chamber of Representatives in fact put a question on further success of the USA policy in the Middle East.

As known, the US depends on Turkey because both countries are tightened by anti-Iraq campaign and Ankara is in fact the main transit state via which territory the US air force transport about 70% of all cargo to Iraq. According to Pentagon chair, R. Gates, 1/3 fuel used by Americans in anti-Iraq campaign also goes from Turkey.

Once the resolution was adopted, relations between both countries appeared to be on a threshold of break-up. Ankara did not delay with the response reaction. Turkey has taken a number of measures including:

- Turkey ambassador in the US recall;

- Cancellation of the official visit of Turkey naval forces chair to the US.

The US leadership began to wait for further development of the situation with worries. And the situation gets to develop, but not from the Turkey and Iraq side, but from the side of world markets. On the backstage of different talks on possible Iraq invasion by Turkish army, oil price begin to grow fastly. Thus, oil prices at the first time overcame historical barrier of USD 90 a barrel.

According to forecasts done by some analysts, in the situation continues to develop as now, oil price may rise up to USD 100 a barrel. Such forecasts are based on some factors.

First of all, there is a fact of military operation start by Turkish army in Iraq territory. This in its turn will cause difficulties with Iraq oil extraction and transportation. As a result world will be threaten by sharp decrease of oil supply.

Second of all, Turkish army military campaign in Iraq may continue the whole year. Taking into account that main hydrocarbon raw materials reserves in Iraq are located in the North where Kurdish people live, analysts' forecasts are not groundless at all.

On the third place, taking into consideration a fact that Ankara starts military campaign by fall, right before winter season in Europe and the US, oil price growth is not just real, but could achieve 3-value figures. Most probably the world market further on will be shaked by oil indexes growth.

In the meantime Turkey starts to execute its own external policy directed to aims achievement which are dictated by national interests regardless from Western Europe and USA positions. In this case Ankara's position begins to distract a lot from that Washington has. This cause bigger distance between USA and Turkey and involves other countries in the process.

To be continued…

Picture by http://alitec.ru