SCO to be tested by South Ossetia and Abkhaziya. Whether Russia can rely on support from the countries-participants of the Organization?
Today in Dushanbe leaders of the countries-participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which consists of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Besides, heads of Iran, Pakistan, India and Mongolia - states-observers are expected to participate in the summit.
The agenda of the summit includes the issues which are traditionally discussed at the meetings of this level, first of all problems, which are equally important for all participants of the organization: for instance, a fight with terrorism.
Besides, the issue will be raised on lifting moratorium on membership at the SCO of new countries, in particularly, a new status - partner on dialogue will be offered for Iran and Pakistan.
The SCO as many other modern international organizations has a problem of being heterogeneous. There is no talk on visible divide within the SCO, but a certain non-public rivalry between Russia and China for leadership within the framework of the Organization, which is based on the existing contradictions on the global issues between Moscow and Beijing, excites some cautiousness in political circles. Therefore, practical results of the meetings within the SCO have been still insignificant.
Thus, a wish of Russia to make a decision of the Russian Federation president Dmitriy Medvedev on recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia will play its indicative role, the experts of the Russian Prime-Tass site consider.
According to the statement by an official representative of the foreign ministry of China Zing Gann, this year a main intrigue deals with Georgia.
It seems that the participants of the Summit will not manage to avoid discussion on the latest events in the Northern Caucasus, however, it is hardly worthy to expect a positive assessment in the final resolution of actions by the Russian Federation towards Sukhumi and Tshinvali.
However, president of Russia Dmitriy Medvedev will by all means state the position of Moscow on the latest events around Georgia and once more will present inarguable arguments in favor of his decision made recently on recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia.
An attention to the figure of D. Medvedev will be a particularly, because the participants of the SCO would like to arrange their policies accordingly with the global problems with the Kremlin.
At present Tajikistan chairs the SCO.
Observers highlights, that during the summit the chairmanship should go to D. Medvedev. It is very important for Russia, so that the SCO doesn't turn in pro-China organization.
Therefore, Russian president should share clearly with all attendants the position of Moscow on the core international issues in general, and on the situation in the Northern Caucasus, in particularly.
Almost all Russian political scientists assume, that the participants of the SCO summit will not express their open support of Russia on the issue of the South Ossetia and Abkhaziya independence recognition.
But, if the summit will reveal its understanding towards the Moscow actions in Northern Caucasus, then it should be considered as a modest result in favor of the foreign policy successes of Russia.
The Russian side should explain to the influential Asian countries, that the recognition of the South Ossetia and Abkhaziya independence is not a backing of separatists' regimes.
At the same time, it will be difficult enough to prove this to China. Many in the SCO consider the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhaziya as the Kosovo precedent.
It is not occasionally, that Emomalui Rakhmonov at the Tajiki-Chinese negotiations in Dushanbe guaranteed Beijing that it will never establish official relations with Taiwan.
Tajikistan declares again of "its strict following to the policy of one China," it recognizes that the government of the Chinese People's Republic is the only legitimate government, which represent the whole China - the signed declaration on the further development of relationship of good neighborhood, friendship and cooperation between Tajikistan and China runs.
However, it seems that there is a certain level, of understanding of the Russian position in the CIS countries. Namely, in Kyrgyzstan, at least among independent political researchers, there are calls to the official authorities of the country to follow the Russian Federation in recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhaziya.
Cautious assumptions are expressed that the issue of recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhaziya will be raised at the CIS heads summit, which will take place on October 10 in Bishkek.
The CIS countries, such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, have experienced threats of so called "coloured revolutions," which are exported from the USA to the Central Asia.
According to the Russian experts, perspectives of political division in elite and civil circles, accompanied by mass street demonstrations, military conflicts, seemed to make the leadership of this countries sober and lead to a decision to follow the Russian line.
However, Russia was well aware of the reaction towards its recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhaziya, that it wouldn't have too many allies, and on the contrary, political battles around the political situation in the Northern Caucasus would be a crucial topic in the international agenda.