Entrepreneurs and state authorities develop economy protective measures
20/05/2009, Svetlana Ufimtseva
The organizers of the National Business Forum Spring 2009 (NBF Spring 2009) made a forecast concerning economic situation in Kazakhstan. They believe that the crediting can be stopped in Kazakhstan due to the growth of overdue dept, which can reach up to 40 percent out of credit portfolio.
The first forum took place in the end of last year. That time the delegates considered the scheme of economy financing, the models of reformation system, and stated their ideas concerning consolidation of expert community. In the frameworks of upcoming forum the delegates will present and discuss the first results of initiative work together with the experts from the government.
Entrepreneurs state that the basic aim of the forum is to unite forces of business community and government in order to oppose the crisis. "Now we develop a complex of short-term amendments to anti-crisis program, which will let increase effectiveness of approach to economy stabilization and will become a part of discussion at NBF Spring 2009. Taking in consideration the fact, that today the basic problem is money deficiency in the economy, we are developing stabilization model, which is based on decrease of money outflow from the country and search for new sources of inflow into the country," said the forum organizers.
They said that the primary reason of money outflow is payment of external debts. The situation is being deteriorated in quite rapid rates and the debts provision becomes quite problematic. According to the official data, the decrease of real GDP reached almost 6 percent in the first quarter of 2009, due to this, the growth of overdue debt can reach up to 25-40 percent out of credit portfolio by the end of this year. "It means that this year the banks will have to additionally "frozen" 1.5-2.5 trillion tenge, or 9-16 percent of GDP, while the whole volume of provisions of second level banks can be equal to 2.5-4 trillion tenge, or 15-25 percent of GDP," said the forum organizers. They believe that such scenario threatens the country's economy with paralysis of economic activeness in the country. They plan to offer resolution and mechanisms of potential threat neutralization during the upcoming forum.
The second reason of money outflow is found in import, which should be party replaced with Kazakhstani goods. It can be done by short-term measures, like decrease of taxes for a number of enterprises working in real economy sector and demand stimulation.
"Today, the anti-crisis council developed concrete recommendations, on the address help not only to the banks, but exactly to the branches and branch companies," said Raimbek Batalov, deputy head of anti-crisis council of Kazakhstani government.
During the forum, the entrepreneurs together with the government representatives will discuss the opportunities of percent rates decrease for credits and subsidized loans. "During the National Business Forum Spring 2009, we hope to present the designated aims in details. We hope to establish cooperation with the government and wide business circles and also to get constructive criticism. The work of NBF spring 2009 will be aimed to increase effectiveness of joint discussion of the most actual issues by the representatives of state structures and business," said the forum organizers. They plan to publish the forum results and the way of programs implementation at their site www.nbforum.kz